Donald Trump’s approval rating now presents a markedly different picture from what it looked like just a year ago, revealing unexpected shifts in public confidence — including erosion within his own political base. While a second term in office often consolidates support among loyal voters, recent polling suggests that Trump’s standing has softened rather than strengthened, and in ways that have surprised political analysts.
Since returning to the White House, Trump’s job performance and leadership qualities have been closely scrutinized through a series of national surveys. While polarization remains intense, the latest figures indicate a broad decline in confidence across multiple measures, cutting across party lines but most notably affecting Republicans.
A recent nationwide survey conducted by the Pew Research Center illustrates the trend. The poll, which sampled 8,512 American adults from a wide range of political affiliations, evaluated Trump on six core leadership traits commonly associated with effective presidential performance. Respondents were asked about their confidence in his leadership skills, ethical conduct, understanding of democratic norms, decision-making ability, mental fitness, and physical fitness.
The results show declines in confidence across all six categories compared with polling conducted last year. According to Pew’s findings, just 34 percent of Americans now say they are extremely or very confident that Trump possesses the leadership skills necessary to serve as president. That figure represents a notable drop from earlier measurements taken before his second inauguration.
Overall approval of Trump’s job performance currently stands at 37 percent. While that number may not seem dramatically different from recent historical norms, it reflects a downward slide from approximately 40 percent in the fall of last year — a period when expectations for his second term were still largely theoretical.
More striking than the topline approval figure, however, is how voters now assess Trump’s performance relative to their expectations. When asked whether his presidency has been better or worse than anticipated, half of respondents said it has been worse than they expected. Only 21 percent said it has exceeded expectations, while the remainder said it has performed about as anticipated.
This shift is particularly notable because it contrasts sharply with the optimism that accompanied Trump’s return to office among many supporters. During the campaign and transition period, expectations were high that his second term would deliver sharper governance, faster results, and fewer internal disruptions. The polling suggests that for many voters, those expectations have not been met.
Even more surprising is where the erosion appears to be coming from. According to the Pew data, the decline in confidence is driven largely by Republicans and Republican-leaning independents rather than Democrats or political independents. Among voters who previously expressed strong support for Trump’s policies, approval has dropped significantly — from 35 percent last year to just 27 percent now.
That shift, researchers noted, came almost exclusively from within the Republican population. Democrats’ views of Trump have remained relatively stable — overwhelmingly negative — meaning the change reflects disillusionment among voters who were once more firmly in his corner.
Additional data points underscore the pattern. A majority of respondents — 51 percent — now say they are either not too confident or not at all confident in Trump’s leadership. Only 14 percent describe themselves as somewhat confident, indicating that even tepid approval has diminished.
Concerns extend beyond policy into questions of personal capability. Fifty-two percent of those surveyed said they are unsure or doubtful about Trump’s mental fitness for office, while 50 percent expressed uncertainty about his physical fitness. These concerns, once largely confined to opposition voters, now appear to be gaining traction among Republicans as well.
On matters related to governance and institutional understanding, the numbers are similarly subdued. Only 25 percent of respondents say they are extremely or very confident that Trump understands how democracy functions in the United States. The same percentage believe he consistently chooses capable and effective advisers.
Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, confidence in Trump’s ethical behavior has also declined. At the start of his second term, 55 percent of Republicans expressed confidence in his ability to act ethically in office. More recent polling suggests that figure has slipped, reflecting unease even among voters who continue to support many of his policy positions.
Other surveys reinforce these findings. A recent AP-NORC poll found that 61 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration, an issue long considered one of his strongest political assets. Meanwhile, a separate poll conducted by The New York Times in partnership with Siena University revealed that nearly half of respondents — 49 percent — believe the country is worse off under Trump’s leadership.
Taken together, the data paints a picture of a presidency that is struggling to meet expectations, even among voters who anticipated a more decisive and disciplined second term.
Trump, for his part, has reacted angrily to the polling. In a series of public statements, he dismissed the surveys as “fake and fraudulent,” accusing major media organizations of deliberately manipulating polling data to undermine his presidency.
“Fake and Fraudulent Polling should be, virtually, a criminal offense,” Trump declared, arguing that inaccurate polls were used in past elections to influence voter behavior. He pointed to polling errors during previous election cycles as evidence of intentional misconduct rather than methodological flaws.
Trump further asserted that media outlets knowingly published misleading numbers during earlier campaigns, claiming that despite negative polling, he achieved sweeping electoral victories. He accused organizations across the media spectrum — including outlets traditionally viewed as neutral or even conservative — of producing unreliable data.
The president’s criticism extended beyond specific polls to polling itself as a practice, suggesting systemic corruption within the industry. He argued that flawed surveys distort public perception and damage democratic processes, calling for accountability measures against polling organizations.
Despite Trump’s denunciations, polling experts have emphasized that shifts in approval ratings reflect evolving voter sentiment rather than coordinated media efforts. They note that while individual polls can vary, consistent trends across multiple organizations typically indicate real changes in public opinion.
What remains unclear is whether the current dip in approval represents a temporary adjustment period or a longer-term erosion of support. Presidents often experience turbulence early in a term, particularly when expectations run high. However, the unusual element in Trump’s case is the degree to which skepticism appears to be growing within his own party.
As Trump continues his second term, the challenge will be whether he can stabilize confidence among Republicans while maintaining his political base. For now, the numbers suggest that the enthusiasm that once defined his movement is facing its most significant test yet.
James Jenkins is a celebrated Pulitzer Prize-winning author whose work has reshaped the way readers think about social justice and human rights in America. Raised in Atlanta, Georgia, James grew up in a community that instilled in him both resilience and a strong sense of responsibility toward others. After studying political science and creative writing at Howard University, he worked as a journalist covering civil rights issues before dedicating himself fully to fiction. His novels are known for their sharp, empathetic portraits of marginalized communities and for weaving personal stories with broader political realities. Jenkins’s breakout novel, Shadows of Freedom, won national acclaim for its unflinching look at systemic inequality, while his more recent works explore themes of identity, resilience, and the fight for dignity in the face of oppression. Beyond his novels, James is an active public speaker, lecturing at universities and participating in nonprofit initiatives that support literacy and community empowerment. He believes that storytelling is a way to preserve history and inspire change. When not writing, James enjoys jazz music, mentoring young writers, and traveling with his family to explore cultures and stories around the world.
