NOTE: VIDEO INSIDE THE ARTICLE.
A new artificial intelligence–driven projection of the 2028 United States presidential election is drawing widespread attention online after a YouTube channel used Grok, the AI system developed by xAI, to simulate a full Electoral College map for a hypothetical contest between JD Vance and Kamala Harris.
The result of the simulation is decisive: Grok’s model gives Vance a commanding Electoral College victory, projecting a final tally of 326 votes to Harris’s 212. While the forecast is entirely hypothetical and based on early indicators, it reflects a growing trend in political analysis—using artificial intelligence to visualize possible future outcomes years before voters actually head to the polls.
The simulation, published by a political analysis channel, walks viewers through early primary polling, betting market trends, and a state-by-state allocation of electoral votes. The exercise does not claim to predict the future with certainty. Instead, it illustrates what the 2028 race could look like if current political alignments, demographic trends, and party coalitions remain broadly consistent with where they stand today.
On the Democratic side, Harris is presented as the early frontrunner for her party’s nomination. The model places her at roughly 32 percent in early primary polling, comfortably ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom, who trails with 23.8 percent support. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg sits in a distant third position, followed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
The model notes that Harris’s early advantage is notable given the political context. After losing the 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump, some observers initially speculated that her national political prospects had diminished. However, the simulated data suggests a rebound in support, reinforced by betting market odds that now place her as more likely than not to run again in 2028.
On the Republican side, the projection paints a far less competitive primary field. Vance dominates early polling with nearly half of all support, far ahead of businessman Donald Trump Jr., Senator Marco Rubio, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. According to the model, Vance’s commanding lead makes him the clear favorite to secure the Republican nomination, barring a major political disruption.
From there, the simulation constructs a national electoral map by categorizing states into four groups: solid, likely, lean, and tilt. These categories reflect the expected margin of victory, ranging from landslides of more than 15 points to razor-thin races decided by less than a single percentage point.
In the “solid” Republican column, the model places a large swath of reliably conservative states stretching across the South, Great Plains, and Mountain West. These include states such as Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Wyoming, as well as Ohio—once a perennial battleground, but now projected to be safely Republican following its recent political shift to the right.
Harris’s “solid” Democratic coalition remains anchored on the West Coast and in the Northeast, with states like California, Washington, Massachusetts, and Maryland firmly in her column. After assigning these safest states, the model shows Vance with an early lead in the Electoral College.
The “likely” states further expand that advantage. Vance is projected to carry states such as Florida, Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina by comfortable margins, reflecting the Republican Party’s recent gains in those areas. Harris’s likely states include New York, Illinois, Virginia, and Colorado, though the model notes that some of these states have seen narrower Democratic margins in recent election cycles than in the past.
The map becomes more competitive in the “lean” category, which includes the key battlegrounds that have defined modern presidential elections. The simulation projects Vance winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by narrow margins, continuing a pattern in which the three Upper Midwest states vote together. Georgia and Nevada are also placed in the Republican column by slim margins, suggesting a continued shift toward the GOP in those regions.
Harris’s lean states are fewer in number, with New Jersey and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District representing the remaining Democratic-leaning battlegrounds. By this point in the projection, Vance has already crossed the 300 electoral vote threshold, effectively clinching the simulated election.
The final step in the model assigns two states—Minnesota and New Hampshire—to the “tilt” category, meaning they are expected to be decided by less than one percentage point. Both ultimately break for Vance in the simulation, pushing his total to 326 electoral votes.
Minnesota’s inclusion in the Republican column is particularly striking. The state has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 1972, yet it has become increasingly competitive in recent cycles. New Hampshire has also trended closer, with Democratic margins shrinking steadily over the past decade.
Taken together, the model suggests a potential Republican advantage in a future election shaped by continued strength in the Midwest and expanding competitiveness in traditionally Democratic-leaning states.
Despite the eye-catching map, analysts emphasize that the projection should not be interpreted as a definitive forecast of the 2028 race. The election remains years away, and numerous variables could reshape the political landscape long before voters cast their ballots. Candidate decisions, economic conditions, international events, and shifting voter coalitions all have the potential to dramatically alter the trajectory of the race.
What the simulation does demonstrate, however, is the growing influence of artificial intelligence in political analysis. Tools like Grok are capable of processing vast amounts of polling data, historical voting trends, and demographic information in seconds, producing detailed electoral maps that once required teams of analysts to assemble manually.
As AI-driven modeling becomes more common, such simulations are likely to play a larger role in shaping public expectations and political narratives—even if their predictions ultimately prove incorrect.
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For now, the Grok projection offers a snapshot of one possible future: a 2028 presidential contest in which JD Vance emerges victorious over Kamala Harris with a comfortable Electoral College margin. Whether that scenario ever becomes reality remains uncertain, but the simulation underscores how rapidly evolving technology is changing the way political futures are imagined and debated.
Emily Johnson is a critically acclaimed essayist and novelist known for her thought-provoking works centered on feminism, women’s rights, and modern relationships. Born and raised in Portland, Oregon, Emily grew up with a deep love of books, often spending her afternoons at her local library. She went on to study literature and gender studies at UCLA, where she became deeply involved in activism and began publishing essays in campus journals. Her debut essay collection, Voices Unbound, struck a chord with readers nationwide for its fearless exploration of gender dynamics, identity, and the challenges faced by women in contemporary society. Emily later transitioned into fiction, writing novels that balance compelling storytelling with social commentary. Her protagonists are often strong, multidimensional women navigating love, ambition, and the struggles of everyday life, making her a favorite among readers who crave authentic, relatable narratives. Critics praise her ability to merge personal intimacy with universal themes. Off the page, Emily is an advocate for women in publishing, leading workshops that encourage young female writers to embrace their voices. She lives in Seattle with her partner and two rescue cats, where she continues to write, teach, and inspire a new generation of storytellers.
