A new poll measuring early voter sentiment in California’s race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom is once again stirring unease among Democrats, as two Republican contenders currently sit at the top of the field while a large share of voters remain undecided. Though party strategists caution against reading too much into early numbers, the survey underscores how fluid—and potentially volatile—the 2026 gubernatorial contest remains.
The survey, conducted in mid-December by Civic Lens Research, offers a snapshot of an unsettled electorate navigating a crowded and still-evolving field. While no candidate commands overwhelming support, the fact that two Republicans are leading, even narrowly, has reignited conversations about the risks inherent in California’s top-two primary system and whether Democrats could inadvertently find themselves locked out of the general election.
Civic Lens Research, a relatively new nonpartisan polling firm based in Virginia, surveyed 400 likely California primary voters through a web-based questionnaire delivered via text message between Dec. 14 and Dec. 16. The poll’s margin of error was not disclosed, but its findings broadly align with other recent surveys suggesting Republicans are punching above their historical weight at this early stage of the race.
At the top of the poll was Steve Hilton, a Republican and former Fox News host, who drew support from nearly 18 percent of respondents. Hilton, who has positioned himself as a reform-minded conservative with media savvy and outsider appeal, has been steadily building name recognition since entering the race earlier this year.
Close behind him was Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, also a Republican, who secured support from roughly 14 percent of voters. Bianco has carved out a base by leaning heavily into public safety themes, law enforcement credibility, and criticism of Sacramento’s handling of crime and homelessness.
The leading Democrat in the poll was Rep. Eric Swalwell, who entered the race just last month and received support from 12 percent of respondents. Swalwell’s relatively strong showing, given his late entry, reflects his national profile and established fundraising network, though he still trails both Republican frontrunners.
Former Rep. Katie Porter followed with 9 percent support. Porter, known nationally for her aggressive questioning style and consumer-protection focus, has maintained a loyal base among progressive voters but has yet to consolidate broader Democratic support.
Other Democratic contenders registered single-digit backing. Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer garnered 7 percent, while State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond received 3 percent. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa came in at 2 percent, followed by former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and former State Controller Betty Yee, each at 1 percent.
Nearly 3 percent of respondents said they would support another candidate not listed in the survey, but the most significant bloc—roughly one-third of voters—said they were still undecided.
That undecided share looms large over the entire race. With so many voters yet to commit and multiple prominent figures still considering whether to enter, strategists across the political spectrum stress that the current standings are far from predictive.
Still, the poll marks the latest in a series of surveys showing one or both Republicans leading the field. That trend has raised eyebrows in a state where Democrats hold every statewide office and enjoy a commanding registration advantage.
Under California’s top-two primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same primary ballot, with the two highest vote-getters advancing to the general election. In rare circumstances, that structure can produce general-election matchups between candidates of the same party—an outcome Democrats are keen to avoid.
Veteran Democratic strategist Andrew Acosta said the concern, while understandable, is premature. He pointed to the fluidity of the field and the likelihood that additional Democratic candidates will enter before the filing deadline in March.
“In the open primary world, you can’t handicap a race until you know who’s actually in it,” Acosta said. “The filing period is open until March, and I don’t think only two candidates will end up splitting the roughly 40 percent of the vote that typically goes to Republicans in statewide races.”
Acosta noted that a Republican entrepreneur from Silicon Valley recently entered the race and that speculation continues around whether Attorney General Rob Bonta may launch a bid—moves that could significantly reshape the dynamics on both sides.
Republican strategist Jon Fleischman echoed the view that fears of a Republican-only general election are likely overblown. Even if early polling continues to show Hilton and Bianco leading, he said, Democrats have both the resources and the strategic know-how to prevent such an outcome.
“It’s very, very unlikely that two Republicans make it past the primary,” Fleischman said. “If it starts to look like that’s a possibility, labor unions and other interest groups will spend money to elevate one Republican and depress the other.”
Fleischman pointed to recent examples where Democrats intervened aggressively in Republican primaries. In past election cycles, he said, Democratic candidates and allied groups spent significant sums amplifying certain Republican opponents they believed would be easier to defeat in the general election.
“Schiff did it. Newsom did it,” Fleischman said, referencing recent high-profile races. “They each spent more money elevating Republicans during the primary than the Republicans spent on themselves.”
Such tactics underscore the extent to which California’s primaries are often shaped not just by voters, but by strategic spending decisions made months in advance of Election Day.
For now, however, much of the race remains in a holding pattern. In recent weeks, Steyer has been the only gubernatorial candidate airing television ads statewide, using his personal wealth to introduce himself to voters and emphasize his environmental credentials.
Other candidates, according to Acosta, are largely relying on existing name recognition and occasional media appearances to stay visible.
“All the other candidates are living off name ID and broadcast TV hits,” Acosta said, citing appearances on cable news and local television stations across the state. “Nobody seems to have broken out yet, which is why so many people are still getting in this race.”
The absence of a clear Democratic frontrunner helps explain why the field remains so crowded. Several candidates appear to be waiting for signs of momentum—or missteps by rivals—before committing significant resources.
Policy differentiation has also been limited so far, a reality Acosta expects to change in the coming months. As the new year begins, candidates are likely to start planting flags on major issues such as homelessness, housing affordability, public safety, mental health reform, and the state’s budget outlook.
Those topics could prove decisive in a race where voter frustration with the status quo runs high, even in a reliably Democratic state. While California’s economy remains one of the largest in the world, concerns about cost of living, crime, and visible homelessness have fueled dissatisfaction across party lines.
Republican candidates are already leaning into those themes, arguing that one-party Democratic control has failed to deliver solutions. Democrats, for their part, are expected to emphasize continuity, social protections, and warnings about national Republican policies that they say would harm California’s values.
With more than a year remaining before the primary, the race is still in its formative stages. Polls at this point capture name recognition more than firm allegiance, and history suggests dramatic shifts are likely once campaigning intensifies.
Still, the recurring pattern of Republicans topping early polls serves as a reminder that California politics, while often predictable in outcomes, can be unpredictable in process. For Democrats, the challenge will be less about panic and more about coordination—ensuring their vote consolidates around viable contenders before the top-two system narrows the field.
As filing deadlines approach and campaigns ramp up spending, endorsements, and policy messaging, the contours of the race will sharpen. Until then, the latest poll offers less a forecast than a warning: in a crowded field with a disengaged electorate, nothing can be taken for granted.
Emily Johnson is a critically acclaimed essayist and novelist known for her thought-provoking works centered on feminism, women’s rights, and modern relationships. Born and raised in Portland, Oregon, Emily grew up with a deep love of books, often spending her afternoons at her local library. She went on to study literature and gender studies at UCLA, where she became deeply involved in activism and began publishing essays in campus journals. Her debut essay collection, Voices Unbound, struck a chord with readers nationwide for its fearless exploration of gender dynamics, identity, and the challenges faced by women in contemporary society. Emily later transitioned into fiction, writing novels that balance compelling storytelling with social commentary. Her protagonists are often strong, multidimensional women navigating love, ambition, and the struggles of everyday life, making her a favorite among readers who crave authentic, relatable narratives. Critics praise her ability to merge personal intimacy with universal themes. Off the page, Emily is an advocate for women in publishing, leading workshops that encourage young female writers to embrace their voices. She lives in Seattle with her partner and two rescue cats, where she continues to write, teach, and inspire a new generation of storytellers.
