Historic Election Draws Record Turnout
New York City voters are heading to the polls Tuesday in one of the most closely contested mayoral races in decades — a three-way contest that could reshape the city’s political direction. With more than two million ballots expected, the race between Democratic Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani, former Governor Andrew Cuomo, and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa remains too close to call.
A new survey from AtlasIntel released Monday indicated a tightening contest. Mamdani held a narrow lead at 43.9%, followed by Cuomo at 39.4%, and Sliwa trailing at 15.5%. While Mamdani remains the front-runner, the poll found Cuomo would edge him out in a head-to-head matchup, 49.7% to 44.1%, suggesting momentum may be shifting late in the race.
“This is one of the most competitive New York City elections in modern memory,” said Lee Miringhoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “You’re seeing moderate Democrats and independents gravitating toward Cuomo as the field consolidates.”
Shifting Support and Strategic Ads
Analysts say some of Sliwa’s early supporters have moved toward Cuomo, a sign of strategic voting among moderates aiming to prevent Mamdani’s victory. “Some of the Sliwa supporters are switching to Cuomo. They’re peeling off,” Miringhoff said. “These are voters who prefer Cuomo to Mamdani.”
Cuomo’s campaign and allied super PACs have saturated airwaves with last-minute advertising, highlighting Mamdani’s left-wing policies and raising doubts about his ability to govern the nation’s largest city. “It’s still a lot of ground for Cuomo to make up,” Miringhoff cautioned, noting that while the surge is real, the gap remains within the margin of error.
Campaigns Make Final Appeals
The three candidates spent Monday crisscrossing all five boroughs — from rallies on the Brooklyn Bridge to small neighborhood stops in Staten Island — appealing to undecided voters.
For Mamdani, the race represents a chance to become the city’s first openly socialist mayor. His campaign has focused heavily on affordable housing, labor protections, and climate policy. Supporters have compared his rise to other progressive movements nationwide, seeing his candidacy as part of a generational political shift.
Cuomo, in contrast, has presented himself as an experienced executive capable of steadying city government amid economic recovery and public safety challenges. “Experience matters,” he told reporters at a Bronx event Monday evening. “New York deserves leadership that knows how to manage the complexities of this city.”
Sliwa, the Republican nominee and founder of the Guardian Angels, has emphasized public safety and policing reforms. While his support has declined since early summer, his base remains motivated, particularly in parts of Staten Island and Queens.
Trump’s Late Intervention
The race took an unexpected turn when President Trump urged New Yorkers to back Cuomo, writing on Truth Social that “whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”
The statement came after Mamdani cited Trump’s recent “60 Minutes” interview, in which the president said he would “pick Cuomo over a communist.” Mamdani seized on the remark to frame himself as Trump’s chief political adversary in the race.
Cuomo responded by distancing himself from the endorsement, telling reporters that “the president can support whoever he likes, but I’m running for New Yorkers — not for Washington.” He added jokingly that Trump “would make a meal out of Mamdani” and quipped that he was “much better looking” than his opponent.
Early Voting and Turnout Trends
More than 730,000 New Yorkers cast ballots during the nine-day early voting period that ended Saturday — a strong showing that observers say could influence the outcome. Younger voters dominated the final days of early voting, a trend widely viewed as favorable to Mamdani, who has cultivated strong support among Gen Z and Millennial voters.
However, analysts caution that high Election Day turnout could alter those dynamics. “As turnout gets larger, it tends to lean more moderate and brings in the independents,” said Stephen Graves, an analyst with Gotham Polling. “That benefits Cuomo because he was getting more independent support, while the vast majority of Mamdani’s voters were Democrats.”
Polling Variations and Margin of Error
Other polling firms remain skeptical of claims that the race is tightening dramatically. Alyssa Cass, a strategist with Slingshot Strategies, said Mamdani’s disciplined campaign has minimized errors and maintained his advantage. “When you run an error-free general election campaign, it’s a safe bet that you are on a glide path to win — and to win by more than 50 percent,” Cass said.
Cuomo’s campaign has pointed to the AtlasIntel data as evidence of a late-stage surge, but some experts argue the poll’s methodology may overstate the shift. Republican pollster John McLaughlin, who has worked with Trump and Empire State Republicans, noted that the poll’s sample included fewer Democrats than New York City’s typical electorate.
“Democrats make up closer to two-thirds of the city’s likely voters,” McLaughlin said. “If you reduce that proportion, the race naturally looks tighter.”
The AtlasIntel survey counted 59% Democrats, 19% Republicans, and nearly 22% independents — a mix some analysts say doesn’t fully reflect the city’s composition. Early voting data, by contrast, showed Democrats making up about 73% of ballots cast, with Republicans at 11% and independents around 15%.
Generational and Ideological Divides
The contest has revealed deep divisions within New York’s Democratic base. Mamdani’s movement-oriented campaign has energized younger progressives, while Cuomo’s comeback effort has appealed to older and more centrist voters who remember his decade as governor.
Political historian Caroline Frazier described the election as “a test case for where New York’s political identity goes next.” She noted that Cuomo’s reemergence from political retirement has drawn both curiosity and skepticism. “It’s rare to see a former governor make this kind of return to city politics, and it underscores how unsettled the city’s electorate is right now,” she said.
Sliwa’s role, while diminished, remains consequential. His supporters could determine whether Mamdani wins outright or whether the race tightens enough to force recounts.
Late Polls and Potential Outcomes
Recent polls have consistently shown Mamdani ahead, with margins ranging from six to 25 points. Yet the latest AtlasIntel data marked the first time his favorability dipped below previous highs. The survey found 50% of voters viewed Mamdani positively and 44% negatively — a notable decline from earlier months.
“Mamdani having a negative rating is a sea change,” McLaughlin said. “Either the issue attacks on him are working, or there are too few Democrats in the poll.”
If turnout surpasses projections, some analysts believe the race could hinge on late-deciding independents and moderate Democrats uneasy with both frontrunners.
Election law expert David Kaplan said the city’s ranked-choice system — used in previous primaries but not in this general election — might have altered the outcome in a race this polarized. “Without ranked-choice voting, it’s truly winner-takes-all,” Kaplan said. “That raises the stakes and intensifies every percentage point.”
A Historic Choice for New Yorkers
With polls closing Tuesday night, the outcome could redefine New York City’s political trajectory. A Mamdani victory would mark the first time a self-identified socialist has governed the city, while a Cuomo win would represent a dramatic political comeback for a former governor once seen as a national figure.
For now, the only certainty is uncertainty. As ballots are cast and counted, both campaigns are preparing for what could be one of the most closely watched election nights in the city’s history.
James Jenkins is a celebrated Pulitzer Prize-winning author whose work has reshaped the way readers think about social justice and human rights in America. Raised in Atlanta, Georgia, James grew up in a community that instilled in him both resilience and a strong sense of responsibility toward others. After studying political science and creative writing at Howard University, he worked as a journalist covering civil rights issues before dedicating himself fully to fiction. His novels are known for their sharp, empathetic portraits of marginalized communities and for weaving personal stories with broader political realities. Jenkins’s breakout novel, Shadows of Freedom, won national acclaim for its unflinching look at systemic inequality, while his more recent works explore themes of identity, resilience, and the fight for dignity in the face of oppression. Beyond his novels, James is an active public speaker, lecturing at universities and participating in nonprofit initiatives that support literacy and community empowerment. He believes that storytelling is a way to preserve history and inspire change. When not writing, James enjoys jazz music, mentoring young writers, and traveling with his family to explore cultures and stories around the world.
