New Study Shows Democrat Coalition Crumbling Under Trump Surge
A new report from the Pew Research Center reveals a stunning shift in voter demographics that signals deep trouble for the Democratic Party — and major momentum for former President Donald Trump.
While Trump’s 2024 victory was already historic, the latest data offers a more detailed look at who propelled him to victory — and it’s not the same base Democrats have been warning about for years. In fact, Trump’s voter coalition is far more diverse, working-class, and issue-driven than at any point in his political career.
According to the Pew analysis, Trump made major inroads with Hispanic voters. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Trump 61% to 36%. But in 2024, Kamala Harris barely held a lead at 51% to 48%. That’s a stunning 12-point swing in just four years.
Black voters also shifted. While Democrats still dominate with this group, Trump climbed from 8% support in 2020 to 15% in 2024 — nearly doubling his share. Among Asian-American voters, Biden once held a 70% lead. That dropped to 57% for Harris, with Trump jumping to 40%.
Perhaps most notably, Trump surged with naturalized U.S. citizens. In 2020, they backed Biden 59% to 38%. But by 2024, Harris only secured 51% of their vote, while Trump rose to 47%.
The same report shows Trump outperforming among key voting blocs Democrats have long counted on. He doubled his advantage with non-college-educated voters since 2016. He crushed Harris among rural voters by 40 points. Among religious voters, Trump won 64% to 34%. With men under 50, Trump held a double-digit lead.
The real gut punch for Democrats came in Pew’s finding about voter turnout. Contrary to popular belief, increased turnout did not benefit the left. The idea that more voters help Democrats — often based on the assumption that non-voters lean liberal — appears to be collapsing. Pew found that even if every eligible American had voted in 2024, the results wouldn’t have changed significantly.
This poses a major challenge for Democrats, who once leaned heavily on identity politics and urban turnout strategies. Those tactics now appear outdated in a post-Trump landscape.
Analyst Sarah Anderson summed it up bluntly: “Trump isn’t a normal politician. He connects with people on an instinctive level. Republicans need to stop playing defense and realize they have the ball — and the other team is running out of players.”
Still, Anderson cautioned that the GOP can’t afford to get complacent. She warned that Republican lawmakers have a history of squandering opportunity.
“This isn’t just a win,” she said. “It’s a chance to prove to voters — many of them first-time GOP supporters — that we offer more than slogans. This is the time to deliver.”
If they don’t, she added, those voters might not stick around.
