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A prominent economist who once warned that former President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy would harm the economy is now admitting he may have been wrong.
Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management and a longtime skeptic of protectionist policies, has revised his view on Trump’s use of tariffs as a tool for both revenue generation and trade leverage. In new commentary published last week, Sløk wrote, “Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.”
This shift in tone comes after Sløk previously warned that the imposition of tariffs—especially against China—could spark supply chain disruptions, job losses, and even a potential recession. But with economic indicators now showing resilient growth in U.S. manufacturing and narrowing trade deficits, Sløk is rethinking his earlier predictions.
According to Sløk, extending the current tariff framework could help stabilize financial markets and reduce uncertainty for businesses adjusting to a “new world with permanently higher tariffs.” He also noted that the current structure could generate up to $400 billion annually in federal revenue.
“Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs,” Sløk said, adding that the policy could continue strengthening domestic industries while putting upward pressure on U.S. tax revenue.
The economist’s about-face comes as manufacturing employment and wages continue to climb during Trump’s second term. Labor Department data shows consistent growth in blue-collar jobs and industrial output, contradicting previous forecasts of economic fallout.
Trump officials have long defended tariffs as essential leverage in renegotiating global trade deals. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office maintains that tariffs helped the administration secure improved terms in multiple agreements, including the revised USMCA and ongoing deals with Europe and Asia.
Economists once broadly opposed tariffs, but some are now reconsidering, arguing that when targeted and strategic, they can support national interests without derailing the economy.
Sløk’s reversal, widely shared across financial and political media, has sparked debate over how U.S. trade policy should evolve. While opinions vary, Sløk’s acknowledgement signals that key elements of Trump’s trade strategy are gaining legitimacy — even among those who once criticized them.
