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As 2025 unfolds, the United States is on track to achieve its lowest murder rate in recorded history — a development federal officials and crime experts attribute to renewed support for law enforcement and stricter immigration enforcement under former President Donald Trump.
According to data cited by John Lott Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and a well-known authority on crime and gun policy, the current murder rate appears poised to dip below the all-time low of 4.45 per 100,000 residents set back in 2014. Writing in The Federalist, Lott emphasized that the numbers reflect a significant downward trend in homicides across the nation.
One of the key figures in this trend, FBI Director Kash Patel, reinforced this message by pointing to the administration’s clear-cut approach to policing and justice. “We’re letting the good cops do their job,” Patel said. “We’ve taken the politics out of law enforcement and made sure our officers have the tools and support they need to succeed.”
Patel noted that the Biden-era policies had, in his view, hampered officers with bureaucratic red tape and politicization of policing. Under Trump’s return to a “law-and-order” philosophy, however, the focus has shifted back to proactive policing and community-level enforcement strategies — especially when it comes to violent crime and illegal immigration.
Lott credited this shift as the main reason for the plummeting homicide numbers, writing: “This is happening because law enforcement is once again being empowered. The handcuffs are off the police, and as a result, we’re seeing tangible benefits across the board.”
Many of the administration’s efforts have centered on federal-local cooperation, support for ICE operations, and increased funding for crime prevention initiatives. Law enforcement officials across the country have reported feeling a renewed sense of authority and public backing, which they say has contributed to more effective policing.
While the final numbers for 2025 are still months away, both Lott and Patel remain confident the country is on course to break records. If the trend holds, it could mark one of the most dramatic improvements in violent crime rates in recent decades — a turnaround many conservatives are calling a key achievement of the Trump administration’s policies.
As the year progresses, all eyes will be on the official crime statistics — and the political debates they are sure to fuel.
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