A new poll has sent shockwaves through New York’s political landscape: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is leading Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer by double digits in a potential 2028 Democratic primary matchup.
The survey, conducted by progressive research group Data for Progress and first reported by POLITICO, shows Ocasio-Cortez with 55% support among likely Democratic voters, while Schumer lags behind at 36%. Only 9% remain undecided.
Though the election is still years away, the poll underscores the mounting pressure Schumer is facing from the party’s left wing—especially after his controversial support of a bipartisan funding bill that many progressives felt conceded too much to Republicans and former President Donald Trump.
“This poll really does show that Democrats are united in just wanting to stand up, wanting to fight, wanting to see someone taking a stand for them,” said Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of Data for Progress. She framed the numbers as part of a broader movement within the party to challenge establishment leaders who are seen as too willing to compromise.
The poll also echoes a familiar strategy from Data for Progress, which previously highlighted vulnerabilities in Democratic incumbents like former Senator Kyrsten Sinema. Sinema later changed her party affiliation and ultimately chose not to run for reelection.
While Ocasio-Cortez has not officially announced a Senate bid, speculation continues to swirl. Schumer, for his part, has already filed for reelection and defended his recent legislative decisions as necessary to avoid greater political damage, including a potential government shutdown that could have bolstered Trump’s narrative.
Despite discontent from progressive groups, Schumer has so far retained support within the Senate Democratic Caucus. Still, political commentators are questioning how long that support can hold.
On The Morning Meeting, veteran analyst Mark Halperin suggested that Schumer could be forced to step aside if Ocasio-Cortez enters the race. “It’s hard to see how Schumer could effectively fight back. Going negative on AOC could easily backfire,” he said.
Even Democratic strategist Mark Penn, a former advisor to President Bill Clinton, issued a stark warning. “AOC challenging Schumer could tear the party apart. We’re already seeing Democratic approval ratings hitting historic lows,” Penn said, referencing CNN and NBC News polls showing party favorability hovering below 30%.
According to Penn, a deepening rift between the progressive base and moderates could push the Democratic Party into “the political wilderness,” much like the UK’s Labour Party experienced after internal divisions.
While it’s still early in the 2028 race, the growing divide between the Democratic establishment and its progressive wing is becoming harder to ignore—and this poll may be a sign of more turbulence ahead.
