Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has drawn renewed attention on Capitol Hill with a striking claim: that the number of individuals residing in the U.S. illegally may exceed 20 million.
“We don’t know the exact number, but the estimate could be upwards of 20 million people in this country unlawfully,” Noem told lawmakers during a recent Senate hearing. She later echoed that assessment during a Cabinet meeting, telling the president that between “20 to 21 million people need to go home.”
The figure significantly exceeds most conventional estimates but reflects growing concern among immigration hawks and some policy analysts that recent border surges under the Biden administration may have pushed the undocumented population to new highs.
Stephen A. Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, told The Washington Times that while the number sounds high, it’s increasingly plausible. “Biden blew the top off everything,” Camarota said. “The idea of 20 million now is not crazy anymore.” He currently estimates the undocumented population at around 16 million.
Historically, most federal and academic estimates have placed the undocumented population between 10 and 12 million, a figure that held relatively steady from the late Bush administration through the Obama years and into the early part of the Trump presidency. In recent years, however, evolving border policy and reporting gaps have made accurate measurement more difficult.
The Biden administration has faced intense scrutiny over border enforcement, with critics alleging that lax policies have allowed millions to cross into the country unlawfully. While official data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection shows 10.9 million migrant encounters between January 2021 and December 2024, that number does not include individuals who evaded capture—commonly referred to as “gotaways.”
Some of these individuals are detected through surveillance systems and classified as “known gotaways,” while others manage to cross without any detection at all. Experts believe that the number of unrecorded entries could push the real total significantly higher than the official count.
White House critics, including Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller and Vice President J.D. Vance, have offered even more aggressive figures. Miller recently claimed that 15 million people had entered the country illegally under Biden’s watch. Vance suggested the number was closer to 20 million. Both claims, however, are well above the levels supported by government records.
The debate over the actual number of undocumented individuals in the U.S. remains unresolved—and politically charged. For now, Noem’s estimate adds another layer of urgency to ongoing discussions about immigration reform, enforcement, and data transparency in an election year where border policy is already a central issue.
